Will Italy have a chance to qualify for the 2026 World Cup if Iran withdraws?

Multiple reports from Europe indicate Iran might withdraw from the 2026 World Cup in North America, even though they have earned their place. So, in that event, what would be the implications for Italy, a team yet to secure its ticket to the main tournament?

According to the BBC, FIFA still hopes Iran will participate in the tournament as planned. However, speculation about the Asian team's potential withdrawal has emerged recently. Iran has qualified and been placed in Group G alongside Belgium, Egypt, and New Zealand. Meanwhile, Italy has not secured a direct spot and would need to compete in a playoff to reach the world's biggest football event.

The Azzurri, led by coach Gennaro Gattuso, will face Northern Ireland in Bergamo on March 26th in a playoff semi-final. If they win, they will meet the victor of the Wales vs Bosnia match for a World Cup berth. Currently, Italy holds the highest FIFA ranking (13th in the world) among teams not yet qualified.

If Iran withdraws, will Italy gain an advantage?

Per Football Italia, should Iran not participate, a spot in the 2026 World Cup group stage would become vacant. However, under current regulations, this spot would not be awarded to the highest-ranked FIFA team without a ticket, meaning Italy is unlikely to benefit directly.

Instead, Iran's place would most likely be allocated to the next best-performing team from the Asian Football Confederation (AFC). In this scenario, Iraq is mentioned as the leading candidate to take over the spot.

Iraq still has a chance to qualify through the intercontinental playoff scheduled for late March. If Iraq is promoted to the group stage in Iran's place, their intercontinental playoff slot could be passed on to the UAE.

In summary, even if Iran does not take part in the 2026 World Cup, Italy would gain almost no direct advantage and must still determine its own fate through the upcoming playoff matches.