Analysis and odds for Everton vs Burnley at 02:30 on March 4th, Premier League

Analysis and odds for Everton vs Burnley at 02:30 on March 4th. Predictions, expected lineups, and expert analysis for the Everton vs Burnley match in Premier League Round 29.

Match Analysis: Everton vs Burnley

90-Minute Odds: 0 : 1

Total Goals: 2 1/2

Everton enter their home fixture against Burnley at Hill Dickinson Stadium riding high after an emotional 3-2 victory over Newcastle. David Moyes's team twice took the lead and, despite being pegged back, found a way to secure the decisive blow thanks to a goal from Thierno Barry and a superb save from Jordan Pickford. This result ended The Toffees' two-match losing streak and kept their hopes of European qualification alive.

In terms of firepower, Everton lacks a standout scorer, with Iliman Ndiaye, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, and Thierno Barry each having scored 5 goals. Meanwhile, Burnley boasts two more efficient forwards in Jaidon Anthony and Zian Flemming with 6 goals each. However, the head-to-head record favors Everton. In their last five meetings, Everton have won three, drawn one, and lost only one; notably, Burnley have failed to score in their last four encounters with Everton.

This season's statistics show Everton have scored 16 goals at home, averaging 1.14 per match, but have conceded 1.36 goals per game, placing them among the less stable defenses. Nevertheless, Burnley appear even more vulnerable away from home: they have conceded 33 goals in 14 away matches, averaging 2.36 per game, and have yet to keep a clean sheet on the road. Burnley also lead the league in allowing opponent shots, facing 448 attempts after 27 rounds, a figure that highlights the immense pressure on their defense.

Despite suffering a 3-4 defeat to Brentford in a chaotic match, Burnley showed commendable fighting spirit, nearly pulling off a historic comeback on two occasions. However, having lost 16 of their 27 matches and failing to win in 17 of their last 18 games, they remain entrenched in 19th place.

Recent head-to-head history shows most of the last 9 encounters have featured 2 to 3 goals, with Everton's scoring rate against Burnley exceeding their seasonal average. With boosted morale and the psychological lift from their weekend win, the home side has grounds to end their disappointing run at their new stadium.

Everton vs Burnley Team News

Everton: Jack Grealish out for the season following surgery; Carlos Alcaraz sidelined for 3-4 weeks; the rest of the squad remains unchanged from the win over Newcastle.

Burnley: Cullen, Roberts, Amdouni, Tuanzebe, Broja, Beyer, and Tresor are absent due to injury; Foster has returned.

Predicted Lineups for Everton vs Burnley

Everton: Pickford; O'Brien, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, Mykolenko; Garner, Gueye; McNeil, Dewsbury-Hall, Ndiaye; Barry

Burnley: Dubravka; Humphreys, Worrall, Esteve, Pires; Ugochukwu, Ward-Prowse; Hannibal, Foster, Anthony; Flemming

Everton's Recent Form

28/02/2026: Newcastle 2-3 Everton (PL)

24/02/2026: Everton 0-1 Manchester Utd (PL)

11/02/2026: Everton 1-2 Bournemouth (PL)

07/02/2026: Fulham 1-2 Everton (PL)

31/01/2026: Brighton 1-1 Everton (PL)

Burnley's Recent Form

28/02/2026: Burnley 3-4 Brentford (PL)

21/02/2026: Chelsea 1-1 Burnley (PL)

14/02/2026: Burnley 1-2 Mansfield (FAC)

12/02/2026: Crystal Palace 2-3 Burnley (PL)

07/02/2026: Burnley 0-2 West Ham (PL)

Recent Head-to-Head History between Everton and Burnley

27/12/2025: Burnley 0-0 Everton (PL)

06/04/2024: Everton 1-0 Burnley (PL)

17/12/2023: Burnley 0-2 Everton (PL)

02/11/2023: Everton 3-0 Burnley (EFL)

07/04/2022: Burnley 3-2 Everton (PL)

Everton vs Burnley Match Prediction

Everton hold a psychological and historical advantage, while Burnley's away defense has been particularly leaky.

Predicted Score: Everton 2-1 Burnley